Russia has recently made some gains in eastern Ukraine.  , Russia is about to capture the whole territory of Donbas region. , Russia’s military has suffered serious losses, The kremlin doesn’t aim to capture Kyiv and overthrow the government any more., Nevertheless, the chances of escalation in this war persist. , The Ukrainians successfully use the Western-supplied, high-precision weapons., The effective use of HIMARS might force the kremlin to boost its aggression., Moscow’s attempts to conquer all of Ukraine are seemingly unfeasible., Moscow hopes to wear down the Ukrainian military and force Kyiv into disadvantageous territorial concessions. , Carpet bombing or chemical or biological attacks could be used to quash Ukrainian resistance in major occupied cities such as Kherson., A looming risks of Ukrainian counteroffensive can oust the russian military from Kherson and Mariupol. , There is a remote chance that russia may use low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to break the entrenched and battle-hardened Ukrainian lines in the Donbas., The kremlin’s invasion may have slowed to a war of attrition against the Ukrainian military. , The russia still has enough tools at its disposal to escalate the war., The West needs to prepare itself for intensified warfare between Ukraine and Russia. , The hybrid warfare between russia and the West may also intensify. , How can the West help Ukraine if russia chooses to escalate? , What will the West do to respond to heightened russian aggression? , What can the West do right now to dissuade russia from taking dangerous next steps that could precipitate a wider war?, We have assembled a list of possible policy responses which the West should consider according to the approximate level of escalatory severity. , Each choice is accompanied by an assessment of possible impact on Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the transatlantic community. , The sets of measures are organized by separate crisis triggers, but they are still listed in order of escalating intensity.,

Climbing the escalation ladder_introduction

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